NFL Mock Draft 2012: January 27
This week’s mock includes the two teams eliminated from the playoffs last week (Baltimore and San Francisco)(haha San Francisco you assholes). I still think Chris Polk is a first rounder. He doesn’t have eye-popping measurables. He’s like Rashard Mendenhall but perhaps more athletic.
I mocked another defensive end to the Seahawks. I love Ryan Tannehill‘s game, but I don’t want to see them reach that far for a quarterback.
The new Ocho Cinco is a guy named Whitney. Just kidding. He can't wear that number in the NFL. Dummy.
1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
No matter if the Colts use this pick or trade it, the top pick in this year’s draft will be Luck.
2. St. Louis Rams: Matt Kalil, OT, USC
Jason Smith and Alex Barron have been busts. The Rams need an upgrade at tackle.
3. Minnesota Vikings: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
The Vikings need to replace Bryant McKinnie, and while Martin is a reach, he’s much better than any 2nd rounder.
4. Cleveland Browns: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Mike Holmgren is willing to spend very high picks on defensive players, and not quarterbacks.
Last Week: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
New Bucs coach Greg Schiano may want to run the ball a ton, and LeGarrette Blount may not cut it.
Last Week: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
6. Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
Daniel Snyder isn’t afraid to make a flashy move, and the Redskins need a QB.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
The Jags need a weapon more than anyone, and Blackmon is the best available receiver in this draft.
8. Miami Dolphins: Riley Rieff, OT, Iowa
Dolphins need to protect the passer, no matter who it is next year.
Last Week: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
9. Carolina Panthers: Devon Still, DT, Penn State
Panthers need help across their defensive line, and Still is best DT in draft full of DEs.
Last Week: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
10. Buffalo Bills: Courtney Upshaw, 34OLB, Alabama
If the Bills commit to a 3-4 they will need an edge rusher.
Last Week: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
11. Kansas City Chiefs: Nick Foles, QB, Arizona
I scouted Foles earlier, he could rise up draft boards and may fit in Kansas City.
Last Week: Nick Perry, 34OLB, USC
12. Seattle Seahawks: Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
Mercilus can rotate in for Red Bryant on pass downs, and may replace him if Bryant signs elsewhere.
Last Week: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
13. Arizona Cardinals: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
Wright can step into the slot, or play opposite Larry Fitzgerald immediately.
14. Dallas Cowboys: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
The Kirkpatrick slide ends. A little weed never got between Jerry Jones and a player, ask Nate Newton.
Last Week: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
Andy Reid drafts D-linemen. The Eagles need D-linemen. Quinton Coples can play every position on the Eagles D-line.
Last Week: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
16. New York Jets: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
Can step in for Plaxico Burress if he leaves in free agency.
Last Week: Dwight Jones, WR, North Carolina
17. Cincinnati Bengals (via Oakland): Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
The Bengals need corner help across from Leon Hall.
Last Week: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
18. San Diego Chargers: Melvin Ingram, 34OLB, South Carolina
The Chargers haven’t had a dominant pass rusher since Shawne Merriman started dating Tila Tequila.
Last Week: Whitney Mercilus, 34OLB, Illinois
19. Chicago Bears: David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
Elite talent at guard, and the Bears need offensive line help.
20. Tennessee Titans: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
Best center in the draft, a team that needs a center, and that will prioritize offensive line.
Last Week: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami
Good complement to Cedric Benson, who is aging.
Last Week: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
22. Cleveland Browns (via Atlanta): Chris Polk, RB, Washington
Polk is a versatile back and Mike Holmgren figures to be a fan of him.
Last Week: Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
23. Detroit Lions: Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
The Lions should have drafted their future left tackle the pick after they picked Jeff Backus in 2001. Or somewhere in between.
Last Week: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Alameda Ta’amu, NT, Washington
Nose tackle certainly isn’t an immediate need, but replacing Casey Hampton will eventually have to happen.
25. Denver Broncos: Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia
Brian Dawkins is on his last leg, and the Broncos should move Champ Bailey to safety.
26. Houston Texans: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
The Texans showed this year that their depth at wide receiver is pretty thin.
Last Week: Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
27. New England Patriots: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
Best player available. Belichick collects DBs like baseball cards.
28. Green Bay Packers: Brandon Washington, OL, Miami
The Packers need help on their offensive line, which will help their run game and Aaron Rodgers.
Last Week: David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
29. Baltimore Ravens: Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson
Ed Dickson didn’t replace Todd Heap, and Allen is an elite talent.
30. San Francisco 49ers: Dwight Jones, WR, North Carolina
Michael Crabtree is a diva, and a diva on his way out of the building.
2012 Seahawks QB Candidates: Jimmy Clausen
Jimmy Clausen, Carolina Panthers
6-2, 222
2012 Age: 25 years old
"Hey, Coach Rivera, um... you see my mom is here, and she came all the way from California to see me play, can I at least hold for extra points?"
What we like:
Average arm strength
Accurate when he has time
Average athleticism
What we don’t like:
Poor decision making
Not accurate overall
Doesn’t do anything well, or really even above average
Summary:
At a point during Jimmy Clausen’s draft process there was some thought that he’d be a first round pick. The Seahawks passed on him twice, and he lasted until the 48th pick. Clausen became a victim of a new regime in Carolina, as the Ron Rivera led Panthers took Cam Newton with the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft. Clausen’s background in the Carolina offense means that he’s likely be comfortable in an offense that doesn’t force him to make plays constantly, and instead relies on the running game to control the clock, but that’s more of a luxury, generally speaking, than some intrinsic skill. Clausen was once a decent prospect, but in addition to the fact that we just really hate Notre Dame, he also started 10 games as a rookie and never threw for over 200 yards. He’s not a prospect worth giving anything but league minimum and a third string role, like another former Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn had to do in Denver.
Jeff Francis signs with Cincinnati
Jeff Francis, who used to be the future ace of the Colorado Rockies, and used to be a pitcher for the Kansas City Royals, and probably still is the veritable man crush of one Dave Cameron, is now a Cincinnati Red. The Reds agreed to terms with Francis on a minor league deal. The deal makes sense for the Reds, who had a rotation that included only one pitcher to start more than 30 games. That pitcher was Bronson Arroyo and his -1.3 WAR.
Francis’ main attraction was that he used to be a pretty good pitcher, and is still reasonably young (31 years old) and he used to get a lot of grounders and miss some bats. He doesn’t miss many bats anymore, but he seemed like a good fit for Safeco Field.
That he signed with the Reds makes sense from an opportunity-to-start standpoint. Even though the Reds traded for Mat Latos, Francis’ path to the rotation is probably pretty easy, and slightly harder in Seattle. However, pitching in Safeco compared to Great American Ballpark probably really doesn’t help set Francis up for his next contract. A minor league deal is an additional slap in the face, as Francis has flirted with and spurned the Mariners in two straight offseasons. Even moreso, he’s one of few players with witch the Mariners have a provincial advantage, as Francis was born in British Columbia.
Have fun in shitty Cincinnati, Jeff. I hope a playoff chase makes you real fucking happy.
2012 Seahawks QB Candidates: Mark Sanchez
Mark Sanchez, New York Jets
6-2, 225 lbs
2012 Age: 26 years old
Mark Sanchez may be following too closely in the footsteps of his predecessor Matt Leinart. Less GQ spreads, more film please, Mark.
What we like:
Above-averages arm strength, decent accuracy
Above-average mobility
Has improved statistically each year though the Jets have gotten worse
Has played in an offense that poorly emphasizes his strengths
What we don’t like:
Will probably never be great, that’s why the Seahawks didn’t draft him in the first place
May have some bad blood with Pete Carroll
Questionable decision making ability
Is he really committed to football?
Summary:
I wrote about Sanchez earlier in the year at my real writing job, the job that pays for this website and a couple pints during Sunday’s action. I’m not nuts about his skills, but he’s made minor strides as his team has gotten much worse. There may be lingering issues between he and Pete Carroll, who clearly didn’t think that Sanchez was ready for the NFL, or perhaps Sanchez will have some sort of epitome that Carroll was right. In any case, the only way that Sanchez is available is if the Jets find a better alternative at quarterback (maybe Peyton Manning). The Seahawks may be willing to bet that Sanchez will perform better in an offense he’s better equipped for, but hopefully they won’t bet much. I’d be unhappy about any type of Sanchez acquisition that involved anything substantial being traded to New York, or any sort of significant guaranteed money being spent on him.
Prince Fielder signs with Detroit
Two members of the offensive line for the Detroit Tigers flag football team look to Prince Fielder to shore up the left tackle position
Prince Fielder signed with the Detroit Tigers today, in exactly the kind of behemoth contract I didn’t want to see him sign in Seattle. Nine-years, $214 million. That means that Fielder will be 36 years old when his contract is over. Playing baseball at 36 years old is at least on the edge of old for anyone not named Julio Franco or Jamie Moyer, but when you’re built like a sumo wrestler, some people theorize that 36 years old is a lot older.
Some people theorize that when your dad, who came in the league infinitely more athletically built that you anti-metabolized his way out of the league, you’re prone to do so yourself.
Some people think that nobody is worth nine-years, $214 million.
I don’t know what Fielder will look like in five years. I definitely don’t what he will look like in nine years. I think that there is a chance that Fielder is productive longer than Albert Pujols, but I wouldn’t call it an overwhelming probability.
So the comparison between Albert Pujols, his contract, and Prince Fielder and his contract are probably not exactly apples-to-apples. The Angels signed Pujols as a contender, and seemed to have their new TV deal in their hip pocket conditional on Pujols arrival in Anaheim. Much of Pujols cost was supplemented, most of his production is a marginal gain, which is important to all teams, but harder to achieve, generally, for teams that are already good, and thus more valuable because they lead to other prospective revenue streams (playoff tickets, additional regular season ticket sales, etc).
I’d equate Albert Pujols contract to a controlled burn, while Fielder’s is a wild fire. Either way there will be a mess at the end, in all likelihood, but the Angels came with retardant and brooms, and the Tigers came with mystery liquid and a prayer.
Good process will beat bad process more times than not. The Mariners exercised good process by not overpaying for Fielder. As a Mariners fan it’s almost hard to care about this deal anymore as he’s not going to Texas, but he’s not going to be bogging down Seattle on the field or in the payroll department over the next nine seasons. I don’t know what Prince Fielder will look like over those nine seasons, but I think he’ll be less than great for a lot of them. So Prince Fielder signed in Detroit, that’s good news to me.
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A Chone Figgins-Wandy Rodriguez trade could make sense
Wandy Rodriguez is as wanted by the Astros as additional marijuana legislation is desired in Eugene, Oregon.
From the way things have gone in the past year it seems like the second after Wandy Rodriguez signed his three-year, $34 million contract with the Astros the team called the entire AL East to find out who wanted to give up a B-level prospect in exchange for Rodriguez and his new salary. A year earlier the Mariners signed Chone Figgins to a four-year, $36 million deal they’d regret almost immediately also. It makes sense for the two teams to include the two in a swap.
At the beginning of November I looked at some potential landing spots for Figgins, but didn’t include Rodriguez. It seemed at the time like the Astros would be able to trade Rodriguez for something of value, but recent reports indicate that interest in Rodriguez may not be high, if it exists at all.
For the Mariners acquiring a guy who has had a better-than-average xFIP makes sense given the vacancy created by the trade of Michael Pineda. Though Rodriguez will be 33 next year, he’s pitched more than 190 innings in each of the past three years, and has averaged no less than 7.78 K/9 since 2007.
Considering that, it’s probable that the Astros may require the Mariners to pick up some of Figgins’ salary. The Yankees attempted to trade for Rodriguez at last year’s deadline, but were rebuffed when they asked the Astros to pay $17 million of Rodriguez’s then $38 million remaining salary. Figgins remaining guarantees are $17 million.
Though Astros may require additional compensation for Figgins, they may be willing to swap Rodriguez for a reduced cost they’ll incur taking on Figgins contract, and potential cash. Figgins is guaranteed $17 million over the next two years, while Rodriguez is guaranteed $25.5 million (which includes the buyout tied to his team option in 2014). $8.5 million are no small potatoes to the Astros, who have struggled in past years, and who recently changed ownership. Figgins may be able to fill a few holes for the Astros for the next year or two, as they’ve traded their two best defensive outfields (Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence), are shopping their worst defensive outfielder (Carlos Lee), and have traded their MLB second baseman (Jeff Keppinger) while starting a 26 year old rookie (Chris Johnson) for most of their games at third base last year.
It’s not to say that the Astros are one Chone Figgins away from competing. No team can be even philosophically one negative-value player away from competing. I mean, c’mon. But if they value money above marginal production gain, which in their position may make some sense, Figgins may simply act as a place holder to delay the service time clock for a prospect like George Springer. And if Figgins wasn’t enough, it probably wouldn’t take any kind of top prospect to bridge the gap (Mike Carp or Johermyn Chavez for example).
For the Mariners, it would be the equivalent of signing Rodriguez to a two-year, $8.5 million (ish) contract, as they’re doesn’t seem to be a significant drop off between Kyle Seager and Figgins. Better yet, it would be backloaded, so the Mariners would be able to enjoy Rodriguez services this year for only a $1 million difference. And of course, as a lefty in Safeco Field, Rodriguez figures to benefit from the spacious confines that dampen right-handed power. He’s no Jason Vargas though. Vargas has pitched close to 500 innings with the Mariners. In no season has he topped six K/9, and has never topped 37 percent groundballs.
By contrast, Rodriguez has a groundball percentage that has been at-or-better than 45 percent for the past three years, and though he averages about a half-walk more per nine innings than Vargas, he’s been basically a run better than Vargas in terms of xFIP for the past three years.
By no means is Rodriguez an ace. However, he’s an upgrade over what the Mariners presently have, and if he’s acquired in a trade that involves Chone Figgins, much of his cost would be supplemented by the loss of some of Figgins’ salary. At the end of his contract Rodriguez may not be a Type A free agent—though he presently ranks as one according to projections—but he’d figure to add considerable present-day value to the Mariners, and could be a valuable piece of trade bait at either of the next two trade deadlines.
Considering the compensation presumably needed to sign Edwin Jackson, Rodriguez may be the best possible rotation value available.
Loading ...The Chip Kelly clusterfuck
This was actual a good example of journalistic diligence by the Register-Guard. It was also a Mindfuck.
The last few weeks have been an incredible personal lesson on the journalistic value of twitter and reporting “sources” on the internet. Sports journalism is evolving, forcing us all to learn how to deal with complete information overload, testing our ability to keep up with everything.
At one point last night, Chip Kelly was a Tampa Bay Buccaneer, ready to plunder Oregon’s coaching staff if they didn’t promote one of his assistants to Head Coach. It was a done deal, multiple sources cited. Mainly, the Eugene Register-Guard.
Last night while most of us were enjoying the NFC Championship game tweets started to surface that Chip Kelly was abandoning ship at Oregon in order to jump on the ship at Raymond James to coach the Bucs.
Of course, this came with rumors of Chip Kelly jumping ship because of Pete Carroll – Seahawk precedents. Is Chip just leaving before the NCAA drops the hammer on Oregon? Well, he didn’t leave. He’s staying at Oregon, hypothetical sanctions or not.
But what was really baffling about this situation, and any comparisons to when Carroll jumped to Seattle, is that Carroll only left USC for the absolute perfect opportunity in the NFL. In Seattle Carroll was granted an aggressive organization, complete control of player personnel hiring his own GM, and $7 Million a year didn’t hurt either.
Let’s make no mistake about it, NCAA hammer or not, Carroll wasn’t going to leave USC for just any job. He would have done it many years prior if it was just about going to the NFL. Carroll had one of the best jobs in the country already.
Tampa Bay did not present that kind of similar scenario for Chip Kelly.
And let’s not make any mistake about Chip Kelly, he is as much a God in Eugene as Pete was in Los Angeles. That is a dream job for Chip and he is a dream coach for Oregon. It’s literally a match made in heaven, and in order for him to leave that it will come down to the perfect NFL match.
Chip is a hungry, competitive individual. He has Oregon on its most successful run in the entire history of the program, there is only one more thing he has left to accomplish at Oregon (a national title), other than that the program has reached its ceiling. I fully believe that Chip would embrace a challenge to make his offense work on football’s highest stage, I do not believe that Chip would do it unless it is on his own terms. It will cost more than $8 Million a year to get him to leave, it will take the power for Chip to control the personnel of his football team and would it take the power for Chip to choose every member of his staff in the NFL.
I believe that Chip had agreed to a number of major contractual issues with Tampa Bay, but I also believe there were two things that snagged an eventual agreement, and why at the end of the day this made no sense for Chip. Tampa Bay has a General Manager, and a General Manager that ran the recruitment effort of Chip. I believe that a minor detail of what role Chip would have in bringing in players turned in to a major snag. I also believe that Oregon and Uncle Phil made an 11th hour offer in order to make his already lucrative employment package even more so.
The NFL will always be there for Kelly. Oregon isn’t going anywhere with Kelly on the sidelines in Eugene, and they will again enter this upcoming season as a legitimate National Championship contender.
It’s been a cluster fuck 24 hours, but at the end of the day, common sense prevailed.
Besides, do you want Josh Freeman running your spread?
Chip Kelly won't produce many NFL QBs, but he knows a shitty one when he sees one.
Loading ...2012 Seahawks QB Candidates: Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins, Michigan State
6-3 6-2, 205 209 lbs
2012 Age: 24 years old
Kirk Cousins is the offspring of two Cousins, get it?
What we like:
Three year starter
Average arm strength, above average accuracy
Not a scrambler, but mobile enough to run bootlegs and to pick up first downs with his feet on occasion
Experience in a pro style offense, takes most snaps from under center, and runs a lot of play action
Showed up in big games in 2011
What we don’t like:
Arm talent has probably already reached peak, and is only above average
Size is a question mark, may need to add weight to withstand NFL pounding
May have small hands Has below-average hand size: 9 7/8″
Summary:
Cousins is firmly entrenched in what I consider the second-tier of quarterbacks in the draft. He plays in a pro-style offense, and has solid mechanics and footwork. Cousins is a three year starter and has been productive since taking over his junior year. He’s not great at any one aspect of the quarterback position, but he is something like a poor man’s Ryan Tannehill, who is more athletic, and has a stronger arm. Cousins’ bust rate is pretty low, as his skills can probably translate quickly into the NFL. However his size and natural talent probably limit his ceiling considerably, and Cousins may turn into this year’s version of Andy Dalton, but with a pro-style background.
EDITED TO REFLECT TODAY’S SENIOR BOWL WEIGH IN
Mariners sign Kevin Millwood to minor league deal
The Mariners have signed 37 year old righty Kevin Millwood to a minor league deal. Millwood pitched 54.1 innings in the big leagues last year, en route to a 3.55 xFIP in Colorado. Safeco Field figures to have a reverse effect on Millwood’s results that Coor’s Field had, as Millwood’s ERA was almost a half-run worse than his xFIP. Millwood also pitched 89.2 innings for minor league affiliates of the Red Sox and Yankees.
Millwood last pitched significant big league time in 2010, when he pitched his second straight 190+ inning season. He’s pitched in hitter’s parks since 2003, and has consistently out-processed his results. He may be someone like Javier Vasquez, who for whatever reason posts much better peripherals than results every year, or it may be a result of the parks he’s played in. Millwood’s righty-lefty splits are pretty even thanks to the running action on his fastball, and for essentially a no-risk deal, the Mariners have the opportunity to see–basically for free–if Millwood’s peripherals can swing his results back to a productive level.
How much is Red Bryant worth in free agency?
Red Bryant played like a man possessed this season. This picture makes him look like a man possessed by Mike Tyson around Evander Holyfield's children.
One of the most perplexing free agents that the Seahawks have is Red Bryant. The 27 year old was drafted as a defensive tackle, but was moved to defensive end before the 2010 season. Since then the Seahawks defense has improved considerably when Bryant has been healthy, and though he probably won’t ever post monstrous sack numbers, he’s a valued asset on the Seahawks defensive line.
The confusion with Bryant, of course, is where he fits into the defenses of other teams bidding for his services. While we’ve seen high quality 4-3 defensive ends fetch huge salaries in the past couple years, but those guys profiled exclusively as elite pass rushers. The Seahawks defensive line is constructed quite differently than a standard 4-3 defensive line, as Bryant’s role is more akin to that of a 3-4 defensive end, filling gaps in the run game and taking on double teams to facilitate his teammates, and penetrating into the backfield to make plays in the run when he’s able to. That said, teams vying for Bryant’s services will probably view him as either a 4-3 defensive tackle, or a 3-4 defensive end. Nose tackle is probably out of the question as his time at defensive tackle hasn’t been very productive.
So to find a player comparable to Bryant, we’ll have to use the aforementioned inferences. The bar was set at defensive tackle by Albert Haynesworth who signed a seven-year, $100 million contract. Bryant’s 2011 wasn’t nearly as good as Haynesworth’s 2008 season that included 8.5 sacks, several athletic plays in the backfield, and a second straight appearance in the Pro Bowl. However last year a 25 year old Brandon Mebane resigned with the Seahawks for five-years, $25 million contract with only a $1 million signing bonus.
Richard Seymour is probably the class of the 3-4 defensive end group. In 2006 he signed a three-year, $30 million contract extension with the Patriots. Seymour may have been the most statistically productive 3-4 defensive end in football, Bryant isn’t that. Seymour’s teammate Ty Warren is probably a better comparable to Bryant, as he was less consistently productive than Seymour and signed a five-year extension worth $35 million, with $18 million in guarantees.
The problem though, is that both Warren and Mebane had several productive, mostly-healthy seasons before signing their extensions. Bryant has not. Bryant is also an incomplete player. He’s not the kind of end who can rush the passer on third down. He’s struggled in the past while playing tackle, and even if he rotates inside on pass downs he doesn’t figure to gain a lot of production as a result.
Not only that, but Bryant may be open to taking an “adopted hometown discount” as his father in law is Ring of Honor member Jacob Green.
I expect something like a four-year, $20 million contract for Bryant, who probably benefits some from the new CBA, but who hasn’t been productive enough to deserve a contract even at the level of Brandon Mebane, who was two years his junior when he signed his contract.
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