Matthias Kullowatz

Raul Ibanez the Replacement Level Player

Published May 20, 2013 | By Matthias Kullowatz | Posted in Mariners

I couldn’t resist this picture.

Raul Ibanez has been one of the Mariners best hitters this season. The argument goes like this: Ibanez is second on the team with eight homeruns, fifth on the team in wOBA and third in OPS. That wasn’t a difficult argument, so let’s tackle something a little more controversial. Ibanez hurts—not helps—the Mariners in his current role.

Whoa! I just said he’s one of the M’s best hitters, and then I said he hurts the M’s. What gives? Pretty much everything that doesn’t involve hitting homeruns—that’s what gives. For parts of the season, specifically the last week, Ibanez has been asked to be an “everyday player.” He has started 25 of the 28 games in which he has appeared, and 19 of those have come in left field. Basically, Ibanez is being asked to play defense and hit some off lefties, and that will eventually kill all of his value gained by hitting against righties.

Here are Ibanez’s defensive ratings over the last 5 seasons, courtesy of Fangraphs:

Year	Innings	UZR	DRS	Avg/1500
2009	1123.7	2.7	-2	0.5
2010	1294.0	-6.6	-11	-10.2
2011	1196.7	-19.2	-23	-26.4
2012	651.0	1.0	-5	-4.6
2013	157.7	-5.3	-6	-53.8
Total	4423.0	-27.4	-47	-12.6

Not only is Ibanez an awful defender, but he’s an awful defender at one of the easiest positions to fill and play. Across the league, left field has been an easily-replaceable position, and thus higher levels of offensive output are expected from the position. Since 2012, 75 players have qualified as left fielders and received at least 200 PA, a group of which Ibanez is a card-carrying member. Those 75 players have recorded a 0.320 wOBA and 100 wRC+. That’s league average for all hitters. But if we include just… Continue reading →

Evaluating the Bullpen: Shutdowns and Meltdowns

Published May 15, 2013 | By Matthias Kullowatz | Posted in Mariners

The evaluation of relievers might be evolving more slowly than any other area of baseball, but there are statistics out there that are attempting to weight relievers’ roles more accurately. We’ll get to those, but first, some discussion on closers.

The shiny toy in any team’s bullpen is its closer. Managers (usually) take their best relievers, make them the closers, and let them pitch the ninth inning in save situations. The most common measurement of closer’s skill is measured by saves and blown saves, and closers are paid handsomely for accumulating the former. But the problem is that saves—and reliever outings in general—are not all created equally.

Tom Wilhelmsen entered a game in the ninth against the White Sox back in April with a comfortable two-run lead and nobody on base. He proceeded to walk three batters, allowing one to score, and he put the winning run on first base. With a strikeout, the Mariners escaped with a one-run win and the Bartender picked up a save. Compare that to his performance a few weeks ago against the Angels when he entered the game with a one-run lead and had to face Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and Mark Trumbo. A perfect inning later, and Wilhelmsen got another save—but hardly the same as his save against the White Sox earlier in the year.

The advent of win expectancy allowed for the formulation of a new set of statistics for relievers: shutdowns and meltdowns. Those links are good primers on the subject, but here’s a quick rundown through examples:

A reliever comes in with his team down a run in the seventh inning. “Win expectancy” says a typical team in this situation has a 26 percent chance to win. Three outs later, he leaves the game having… Continue reading →

Kyle Seager and his Friends

Published May 7, 2013 | By Matthias Kullowatz | Posted in Mariners

When you look at the list of the top third basemen by WAR this season, there are definitely some funny names. Manny Machado, Matt Carpenter, Josh Donaldson and Todd Frazier make up 50 percent of the top eight. Of course, it’s early in the season, and the likelihood that Machado stays on pace for an 9.0-WAR season is about the same likelihood as our very own Casey does the same. That is to say, it’s not likely.

I bring up third basemen and their expectations because nestled right up there between Evan Longoria and Carpenter is our very own Kyle Seager, who has recorded 1.3 fWAR to this point and slashed an impressive .293/.348/.496. It’s not hard to replace Chone Figgins and subsequently be considered a demi-god, but Seager has gone beyond just replacing Figgins and has surpassed even the optimistic expectations. It’s fair to ask now, how much should we expect going forward?

Seager has already surprised us, and he could definitely continue to do so. I proceed with caution.

Starting out critically and skeptically, the first place anyone (anyone?) goes to look for impending regression to the mean is the BABIP stat. Seager’s .340 BABIP this year should evoke suspicion. Before this season, his career BABIP in 852 PA was under .300, and the major-league average is also just under .300. Additionally, with a decreased line drive rate and increased popup rate, we have many reasons to believe Seager’s BABIP is on its way down, and with it everything else.

But maybe not down all the way down.

In each of Seager’s three major league seasons, we have seen improvement in his plate discipline. Back in 2011, he used to chase balls outside the zone at the league average clip—swinging at about 30 percent of… Continue reading →

Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: Series No. 9 Preview

Published April 29, 2013 | By Matthias Kullowatz | Posted in Mariners

The Mariners will ride this season’s first series win into a new three-game set with the Baltimore Orioles beginning tonight at SafeCo. The Angels series highlighted some good moves and non-moves the Mariners have made recently, trading Jason Vargas for Kendrys Morales and not signing Josh Hamilton. The Orioles series, on the other hand, reminds of a move gone haywire during a past regime.

Adam Jones has been batting in the cleanup spot for the Orioles during much of these past two seasons. Seattle traded Jones, along with Chris Tillman and a few others, for then-ace Erik Bedard, who proceeded to start just 46 times for the Mariners over four seasons. Jones, on the other hand, has been a valuable starter for the O’s since the trade in 2008, never posting an fWAR below 1.6. Last season proved to be his real breakout when he slashed .287/.334/.505, good for 4-to-5 WAR.

Jones is not a patient hitter. In 2012, he chased balls outside the zone 40% of the time versus a league-average 29% rate, and overall he whiffed on 14% of his swings, dwarfing the league rate of 9%. As you might have guessed, Jones doesn’t walk much. What you might not have guessed is that his strikeout rate is actually better than league average. Basically, he swings early and often, and avoids all deep-in-the-count outcomes. Jones is a good hitter in the literal sense of the word, and his hacking style works for him, but his impatience might keep him from ever being a truly elite hitter.

The M’s start numbers 3, 4, and 5 in this series, so another series win would be a bit of an upset. But hey, it’s baseball!

Game 1: Monday, 7:10 PM — TV: ROOT, Radio: 710 AM ESPN Seattle… Continue reading →

Series No. 7 Recap: Mariners @ Astros

Published April 24, 2013 | By Matthias Kullowatz | Posted in Mariners

The Mariners lost another series to the Astros, a series in which they were outscored 14 – 12, leaving Seattle with the worst run differential in the American League. If Seattle were 8 – 15 with an even run differential, it would be easier to be optimistic, but they’re not, and I’m not optimistic. Nate Silver and his boys at Baseball Prospectus have Seattle projected at right around 75 wins for the season, which is dropping with every loss to the Astros.

Besides losing, maybe the biggest news from the series came when manager Eric Wedge benched Brendan Ryan, not just for the rubber match of the series, but indefinitely. Casey came to work today prepared with anatomical analogies for this decision, and if you know Casey like I know Casey, then you know that assholes are part of the discussion.

When commenting on what Ryan and his replacement, Robert Andino, needed to do going forward, Wedge wrapped it up eloquently and clearly: “Of course, with Brendan, what I feel he needs to do to get to where he needs to go.” I’m not sure that’s even a complete sentence, so let’s delve into this decision a little more deeply.

Despite a career-low .194 average in 2012, Ryan walked a career-best 9.4% of the time, allowing the M’s to at least keep his glove in the lineup. That’s not to say that his offense was acceptable in and of itself, only that it wasn’t as bad as his fielding at shortstop was good. wRC+, the park-adjusted wOBA stat, rated his offense at 61% of league average production, even after controlling for SafeCo Field’s pitcher-friendly ballpark factor. Coincidentally, that’s exactly what the wRC+ metric rated Andino’s 2012 season. In the past, Andino has been merely an average defensive… Continue reading →