How much do the Mariners REALLY have to spend this offseason?

Just today MLB Trade Rumors released their Seattle Mariners arbitration eligible post, and it included one surprise name, Charlie Furbush, who appears to be right on the border of the Super Two cutoff. The other two players eligible for arbitration for the first time are Michael Saunders and Justin Smoak.

(Furbush missed the Super Two cutoff by one day)

The post predicts that each will receive the following in arbitration:

Smoak: $2.8 million

Saunders: $2 million

Furbush: $900K

That’s a total of $4.8 million tied up in first-year arbitration players according to MLBTR, whose projections have a lot of hard work and research behind them. So here’s your Mariners guaranteed commitments going into 2014:

SP- Felix Hernandez: $22.9 million

SP- Hisashi Iwakuma: $6.5 million

SP- $500K minimum

SP- $500K minimum

SP- $500K minimum

CL- $500K minimum

RP- Charlie Furbush: $900K $500K minimum

RP- $500K minimum

RP- $500K minimum

RP- $500K minimum

RP- $500K minimum

RP- $500K minimum

C- $500K minimum

1B- Justin Smoak: $2.8 million

2B- $500K minimum

3B- $500K minimum

SS- $500K minimum

LF- $500K minimum

CF- $500K minimum

RF- $500K minimum

BE- Dustin Ackley: $1.7 million

BE- Michael Saunders: $2 million

BE- $500K minimum

BE- $500K minimum

BE- $500K minimum

With a $500K buyout for Franklin Gutierrez, and a $900K buyout for Joe Saunders the team has a minimum of $47.3 million payroll in 2014. Of course, we know that some of these spots will be filled by specific pre-arb players. That’s not the point of this post, and it’s certainly not my intention to speculate that say, the third base position is up for grabs. Kyle Seager is represented by Kyle Seager’s rough salary expectations.

(This also doesn’t reflect the entire 40-man roster, for what it’s worth. Danny Hultzen is omitted — perhaps out of laziness — since he won’t be on the 25-man roster next year, but his $430K and $1.27 million in prorated bonus will also factor into the Mariners budget. h/t to RDV for calling this out)

Another very important thing that is worth consideration is that the Mariners are nearly certain to extend a qualifying offer to Kendrys Morales. Morales is a Scott Boras client, and while his skills may not be truly deserving of a $14 million annual salary, the combination of his agent (Boras is notoriously greedy, obviously) and the few things he excels at (contact, power) being overpriced in the open market, the Mariners are making a bet that he won’t accept the qualifying offer. At this point however, we’re in limbo.

With that the Mariners are – at this time at least – potentially on the hook for $61.7 million, further shrinking their offseason budget to shop for free agents. In a climate where Hunter Pence receives $18 million annually over five years, the Mariners probably can’t stretch that $28.7 million in surplus budget across two premium free agents, contrary to reports that they’ll have upwards of $50-million-plus to spend.