Hey Matt, can you set my jock strap down and hold this towel?
For those of you who want Matt Flynn to be the Seahawks next quarterback, some news came out that seemed good about two weeks ago. Adam Schefter reported that the Packer’s were “unlikely” to franchise tag Flynn, and it seemed like the Seahawks were going to be the clear frontrunners for Matt Flynn. I still have my doubts about whether or not Flynn is going to be franchised or not, but people who are more important than me are saying that he won’t be.
Then the Miami Dolphins had go to and hire Joe Philbin and screw it all up. And now other important people have added the Dolphins to the Flynn leader board.
Philbin coached Flynn in Green Bay, and while the Seahawks may have an informational advantage, the Dolphins are much more likely to have an inside track on Flynn. I mean, the logic that had the Seahawks as the frontrunner for Flynn’s services always seemed flawed.
The Seahawks hired a general manager who is an excellent judge of talent. He found Matt Flynn in the seventh round of the 2008 draft. Thus Matt Flynn should want to come to Seattle.
First off, if Jon Schneider is such a good judge of quarterback talent, it seems silly to have the team overpay for a guy who Schneider pulled of what is fundamentally the best parts from a scrap heap in the seventh round of the NFL draft. There are good quarterbacks who come from later rounds in the draft. There are good quarterbacks that come from early rounds in the draft. Those quarterbacks are all cheaper than Flynn is likely to be. If Schneider is so good, why not let him use a draft pick on a quarterback?
The other issue is the reason why the Seahawks have been considered a logical choice for Flynn. It’s the same kind of flawed logic that led Mariners fans to believe that Prince Fielder would end up in Seattle. As fans we may overvalue the relationship between a football player and the general manager of a football team. I think we especially have overvalued the relationship between Flynn and a guy in Schneider who was basically a scout in Green Bay. Fundamentally speaking, Schneider was an auditor of Flynn’s skills. Sure he passed the audit, but have you ever met an auditor? Did you ever want to give one a hug? I bet you didn’t. The only unique advantage that Schneider gives the Seahawks when it comes to Flynn is that he’s got as much information about Flynn’s skills as any personnel team in football.
If Matt Flynn is a great guy, the Seahawks know. If Matt Flynn is an asshole, the Seahawks know. If Matt Flynn can’t throw a 15 yard out, you guessed it.
The Dolphins, by contrast, will have a system that Flynn knows. They will have a guy in charge with whom Flynn has likely interacted with a large amount. And if Flynn values proximity to his home town, the Dolphins have a provincial advantage, as Flynn was born in Texas, and Seattle might as well be the Siberia of the professional sports world when it comes to free agents.
So in letting Joe Philbin leave for Miami, the Packers basically created a place where Flynn’s services will be desired. At this point, if the Seahawks want Matt Flynn, it may be in their best interest for the Packers to Franchise Tag Flynn, as that will allow them to negotiate with someone besides Flynn and his agent, as they’d probably be negotiating from a place of decreased leverage.
The Seahawks certainly have the financial backing in their ownership to pay a lot of guaranteed money to Flynn, no doubt. But in a salary-capped league, owner finances can only have so much impact before things get ridiculous.
And if that wasn’t enough, yesterday the Dolphins hired Mike Sherman. I’m not a huge fan of the idea of the Seahawks getting Matt Flynn. I’m an admitted, card-carrying Ryan Tannehill fanboy. I think his physical talent is very good, and that his skills and experience lend themselves to a good transition into the NFL. I know however, that Sherman coached Tannehill at Texas A&M.
Because the league has collectively bargained a draft into their league-entry process, Ryan Tannehill can’t pick what team he’ll go to. But there is no doubt that Miami has an information advantage when it comes to Tannehill.
The Dolphins also pick one pick ahead of the Seahawks in the second round (presently, we will see how the whole coin flip thing works out, but the Dolphins pick is definitely before the Seahawks).
If Matt Flynn ends up somewhere else, like say San Francisco (grrrr), Kansas City, Washington, or anywhere else that isn’t Miami or Seattle, it seems likely that the Dolphins will have a desire to draft Tannehill. If the Seahawks want to draft Tannehill they’ll have to either draft him in the first round, where he is an awful value, or trade ahead of the Dolphins in the second round, or back into late-first-round. When you start to factor all of that into the cost of adding a quarterback, the draft doesn’t seem like such a cheap alternative anymore.